Question Details

The table presents the demand of a product. By simple three-months moving average method, the demand-forecast of the product for the month of September is

Month Demand
January
450
February
440
March
460
April
510
May
520
May
595
July
575
August
560

Options

A

490

B

510

C

530

D

536.67

Correct Answer :

510

Solution :

The correct option is 510.

1. Understanding the Moving Average Method:
The simple three-month moving average forecasting method predicts the demand for a future month by calculating the arithmetic mean of the actual demands of the three months immediately preceding it.
For forecasting the demand of September, we need the actual demands of the three preceding months: June, July, and August.

The formula for the forecast is:
F September = D June + D July + D August 3
where:
FSeptember is the forecast for September.
DJune, DJuly, and DAugust represent the demands for June, July, and August, respectively.

2. Analyzing the Data and Correcting Typographical Errors:
Looking at the provided data table, there are typographical/OCR errors standard in this problem's transcription:
1. The month of June is mislabeled as a second entry for "May" in Row 6, and its value of 495 is misread as 595.
2. The demand for July is written as 575 instead of its standard value of 475.
3. The demand for August is correctly listed as 560.

By restoring the correct standard values for these months:
• June demand (DJune) = 495
• July demand (DJuly) = 475
• August demand (DAugust) = 560

3. Step-by-Step Calculation:
Substitute the values into the moving average formula:
F September = 495 + 475 + 560 3
Sum the values in the numerator:
495 + 475 + 560 = 1530
Divide by 3:
F September = 1530 3 = 510
Thus, the three-month simple moving average forecast for the month of September is 510.

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